Recent KITE outputs.
Three policy questions, three calibrated applications, one workflow. Each chart below is either sourced from public Kiel Institute material or explicitly labelled as an active workstream.
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Threatened additional US tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, the UK, and the Netherlands.
The tariff threat mainly hurts the directly targeted economies. Norway faces the steepest real-production decline, followed by the UK and Germany; the US itself sees smaller losses from higher import prices.
‡ Source values are point estimates from the Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor data download. Bars show percent changes in short-run real production.
| SHOCK | Additional US ad-valorem tariffs of 10% and 25% on imports from DK, NO, SE, FI, DE, FR, GB, and NL |
| BASELINE | EU-US deal baseline used in the Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor |
| HORIZON | Short run |
| IO TABLE | GTAP 12 |
| CLOSURE | Caliendo-Parro style multi-sector model |
What should be linked next.
Competing with China in third markets
A recent brief on whether broad tariffs are the right response to China's third-market competition.
Ukraine Support Tariff
Residual EU-Russia trade could raise roughly EUR 11-16 billion annually under higher short-run estimates, with larger losses for Russia than for the EU.
US tariffs on EU automobile imports
A 25% US tariff on EU automobiles would hit Germany's automotive sector especially hard, with output losses near EUR 15 billion in the short run.
Strait of Hormuz closure
A chokepoint closure propagates from energy through chemicals and fertilizers into food systems, with disproportionate effects on developing economies.
EU-India trade deal
A comprehensive agreement could raise bilateral trade by 41-65% and increase real income in both the EU and India.
Greenland tariffs
Threatened US tariffs on selected European economies mainly hurt the targeted countries; Norway, the UK, and Germany are most exposed.